Commodity Trading Solution for Agri & Dry Bulk

Mads Frank Markussen joins the IFPRI-AMIS panel on what's driving food commodity markets 2026: Our Head of Freight Research & FFA, Mads Frank Markussen, joined the IFPRI-AMIS panel "Weather, Money, and Shifting Bets: What's Driving Food Commodity Markets?", co-organized by IFPRI and the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) and moderated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The panel brought together economists, crop specialists, and market analysts to unpack the forces shaping today's markets, with Mads contributing the freight and shipping perspective. Over the course of the discussion, the panel covered questions including:

Freight Lite: The dry bulk market became more divided this week. Supramax and Handysize remained firm overall, while Panamax weakened as Atlantic vessel availability increased. East Coast South America remained the clearest area of support, particularly for prompt Handysize and Supramax requirements. By contrast, the US Gulf stayed weak for geared vessels, while cheaper Panamax tonnage began competing for some Continent grain stems. Higher fuel and war-risk costs continue to affect voyage economics, while stronger forward US soybean demand is supportive for later-quarter freight but has not yet materially tightened the prompt market. Handysize remained firm overall, but regional conditions stayed sharply divided. East Coast South America strengthened as prompt vessel availability tightened and Brazilian grain-linked activity increased. End-October positions remained particularly well supported. The Continent and Baltic also stayed firm as grain, scrap and backhaul employment competed for a limited prompt vessel list. The US Gulf remained weak as available tonnage continued to exceed nearby cargo demand. Lower congestion also returned additional capacity to the market, keeping negotiating leverage with charterers. Black Sea conditions were more selective, with limited grain demand offset by a smaller pool of owners willing to accept higher-risk employment. Overall, Handysize buyers should cover fixed East Coast South America and Continent requirements while remaining patient in the US Gulf and selective in the Black Sea. Supramax remained firm overall, although the Atlantic picture became more selective. East Coast South America stayed supported as stronger Brazilian grain activity and tighter October positioning underpinned the physical market. The Continent remained firm on prompt dates, but later-October supply improved and cheaper Panamax tonnage began competing for some grain cargoes. The US Gulf softened as the October cargo list cleared and vessel availability remained sufficient for current demand. Black Sea Supramax strengthened despite lower grain volumes as security concerns reduced the number of vessels willing to accept exposed trades. Overall, Supramax buyers should cover fixed prompt East Coast South America and Black Sea requirements, while remaining patient in the US Gulf and on later Continent dates. Panamax weakened this week as Atlantic tonnage increased and forward paper moved below the physical market. East Coast South America softened despite stronger Brazilian grain activity as additional ballast tonnage and lower congestion improved vessel availability. The US Gulf also remained under pressure. Higher congestion provided some support, but weaker prompt grain activity and a longer Atlantic vessel list kept charterers in a stronger negotiating position. The Continent and Baltic weakened as forward tonnage built faster than grain demand, allowing Panamax vessels to compete more aggressively for cargo traditionally covered by geared ships. Black Sea Panamax activity remained limited, with security and insurance considerations continuing to dominate local execution. Overall, Panamax buyers should remain patient on flexible late-October and November requirements while vessel supply and forward pricing continue to favour charterers. Atlantic Basin Handysize and Supramax remained firm in East Coast South America, while US Gulf geared freight stayed under pressure. Panamax weakened across the Atlantic as vessel availability increased and forward demand remained insufficient to absorb the larger list. Black Sea Handysize and Supramax freight remained supported by restricted usable vessel supply, while Panamax activity stayed limited and highly dependent on security conditions. Security and Routing Middle East and Black Sea risks continue to keep insurance, bunker and routing costs elevated. Agricultural Flows Brazilian grain activity strengthened, while US Gulf inspections eased and recent Chinese soybean buying remains more supportive for later-quarter than prompt freight. Vessel Supply Tight prompt geared availability in East Coast South America contrasts with a longer Panamax list and oversupplied US Gulf Handysize positions. Vessel Substitution Cheaper Panamax tonnage is beginning to compete for some Continent grain cargoes normally covered by Supramax or Ultramax vessels. Handysize buyers should cover prompt East Coast South America and Continent exposure while remaining patient in the US Gulf. Supramax buyers should prioritise East Coast South America and fixed Black Sea requirements, while later Continent and US Gulf exposure can be approached more selectively. Panamax buyers should continue working flexible late-October and November requirements lower as vessel availability improves. The market remains highly regional, with tight geared supply supporting selected Atlantic areas while greater Panamax availability continues to shift bargaining power towards charterers.

Mads Frank Markussen explored the impact of Trump’s tariffs, sanctions: Recently, our colleague Mads Frank Markussen, Head of Freight Research & FFA, joined Felipe, Neil, and Michael on a special bonus episode of Sparta Market Outlook to dive into all things freight. Mads and the Sparta team explored the impact of Trump’s tariffs, sanctions, and market inefficiencies on oil and freight trading, as well as how tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China could reshape trade flows—discussed potential US-Europe tariff conflicts and why Russian sanctions have had a limited effect on dry bulk markets. The conversation covered key differences between tanker and dry bulk markets and the growing influence of emissions regulations on voyage costs across the industry. A must-listen for anyone in freight and commodities—check it out! Listen to the full podcast here:

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Wheat started the week firmer while corn remained broadly stable after the previous Friday’s USDA-driven sell-off. Algeria returned to the market with a milling wheat tender for December shipment, while IKAR lowered Russia’s 2026 wheat crop estimate to 88.0 mmt and export potential to 42 mmt. Russian 12.5% wheat from Baltic ports increased to $268/t FOB for late November and early December shipment. In the US, attention remained on harvest progress after wet weather delayed fieldwork, while the weaker euro continued to support European wheat competitiveness. MATIF wheat extended its gains as renewed Black Sea attacks and stronger import demand supported European values. Two cargo vessels were struck by drones off Bulgaria, with one sinking and 11 crew reported missing, while another vessel carrying grain was also hit. Algeria reportedly purchased around 600k tonnes of milling wheat at $326–326.50/t C&F, later revised higher. France cut its 2026 grain maize production forecast to 7.3 mmt from 8.1 mmt, the lowest in ministry records dating back to 1980. US corn harvest reached 33% and soybean harvest 46%, while EU soft wheat exports were reported at 7.99 mmt, compared with internal lineups closer to 10.5 mmt. European wheat remained firmer while corn continued to face harvest pressure. Algeria’s wheat purchase was estimated at around 750k tonnes, considerably larger than initially reported. FranceAgriMer raised French non-EU soft wheat exports to 6.5 mmt and reduced ending stocks to 2.7 mmt, while corn stocks were cut to just 1.1 mmt, down 43% year on year. China’s October CASDE lowered 2026/27 corn feed demand by 9.1 mmt to 200.5 mmt, increasing the projected stock build. Jordan also returned to the feed barley market, purchasing 60k tonnes at $307/t C&F for late January shipment. Grain markets moved lower as larger global supply estimates added pressure. The IGC raised 2026/27 global corn production by 6 mmt to 1.307 bln tonnes and increased total grain ending stocks by 11 mmt to 619 mmt. CONAB maintained Brazil’s 2026/27 corn crop at 148 mmt, 9 mmt above USDA’s estimate, while planted area was projected to increase 4.9% year on year. Argentine corn planting reached 34.8% of the planned 8.4 mha, while wheat harvest progress was slowed by rain and some central regions reported frost-related yield losses. Grains ended the week lower despite another rise in crude oil. US wheat fell to fresh multi-month lows as weak export demand, recovering Russian Baltic shipments and fund selling outweighed continuing Black Sea disruption. reached just 320k tonnes, down from 452k tonnes the previous week, while 2026/27 commitments were 33% below last year. Managed money reduced its corn net long by 86.5k contracts to 230.9k following the October WASDE. Rusagrotrans estimated Russian October wheat exports at 3.0 mmt, with around 65% moving through Baltic ports. France’s maize harvest reached 92% completion, while soft wheat planting advanced to 15%