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Agri- Commodities: 11-15/05/26 : Grain markets started the week sharply higher as tensions in the US-Iran conflict intensified ahead of the USDA WASDE report and the Trump-Xi meeting. US winter wheat ratings fell to the second lowest level for this week in 30 years, while wheat futures moved higher again overnight following the weaker-than-expected crop conditions report. Russian wheat export values also remained firm as markets focused on tightening global supply expectations. The USDA’s first 2026/27 balance sheets delivered a bullish tone for wheat, with US production projected down 11.5 mmt y/y and world wheat output expected to fall by around 25 mmt across major exporters. Corn and soybeans received more supportive-than-bearish balance sheets as well, with global ending stocks for both crops coming in below expectations. Wheat prices surged following the WASDE release, with both Kansas and Chicago wheat futures closing limit up after USDA projected the lowest US HRW wheat production in 69 years. The market was additionally supported by poor crop conditions and disappointing yield estimates from the Wheat Quality Council’s Kansas tour. Outside the US, France projected a sharp drop in maize plantings for 2026 as farmers react to low prices and weak margins, while continued pointing to stronger EU wheat exports than official customs data suggested. The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed as oil prices posted a third straight daily gain, adding broader support to commodity markets. Wheat prices turned lower midweek after another failed attempt to rally further, while traders shifted their focus toward the US-China summit in Beijing. Kansas wheat remained relatively supported by poor crop conditions and concerns over global wheat production, including sharply lower forecasts for Argentina’s upcoming crop. Elsewhere, Morocco suspended wheat imports after rainfall boosted its cereals harvest expectations to 9 mmt. France also slightly increased its wheat export outlook, while fund positioning remained volatile as non-commercial traders sharply reduced their MATIF wheat net long during the previous reporting week. A wave of liquidation hit grain markets on Thursday after the Trump-Xi meeting failed to deliver major new Chinese buying commitments. Soybeans led the decline, with losses quickly spreading into corn and wheat, while MATIF wheat remained somewhat less sensitive than CBOT markets. The final Kansas wheat tour estimate confirmed a 27% y/y drop in average yields, reinforcing concerns over the US HRW crop. At the same time, drought coverage across US winter wheat areas increased again, while both Brazil and Argentina updated crop estimates showing larger soybean and corn supplies but weaker wheat outlooks. The week ended with sharp losses across grains and oilseeds as speculative positioning built ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting was aggressively liquidated. Wheat fell back to pre-WASDE levels, while corn tested key chart support despite continued strength in oil prices. Over the weekend, however, China and the US announced progress toward a preliminary agricultural trade agreement, including soybean tariff relief and expanded US agricultural purchases. Meanwhile, fund positioning showed managed money increasing its Chicago wheat short despite the earlier wheat rally, while reducing long exposure in corn and soybeans.

Weekly Freight Recap: 15/05/2026 : The dry bulk market stayed firm this week, but leadership shifted again. Panamax strengthened further and became the clearest bullish segment, while Capesize remained elevated. Supramax firmed selectively, led by South America and parts of the Pacific, while Handysize split more sharply between a weaker Atlantic and a firmer Pacific. The market is no longer moving on one common basin story. Route-specific vessel scarcity, Atlantic grain timing and persistent Middle East risk are now the main drivers. Crude remained headline-sensitive, but owners did not materially cheapen forward freight. War-risk, bunker access and routing uncertainty continue to distort replacement costs and ballast decisions. Handysize weakened in the Atlantic but stayed firmer in the Pacific. East Coast South America lost momentum as ballast pressure increased. Prompt supply became heavier, and limited nearby demand pushed rates lower after the stronger levels seen earlier in May. The US Gulf stayed broadly flat. Some cargoes were covered early in the week, but this was more calendar-driven than a sign of real tightening. The Black Sea remained soft, with long vessel supply and thin cargo flow continuing to pressure the market. The Continent and Baltic also stayed soft to flat, with too much tonnage against limited straightforward cargo. The Pacific was the main positive area, with tighter lists and firmer owner ideas. Overall, Handysize buyers can wait longer in the Atlantic unless timing is fixed, but should move earlier on prompt Pacific cover. Supramax firmed overall, but the market became more route-specific. East Coast South America strengthened again, supported by tight prompt supply, fronthaul demand and larger units being pulled into Panamax-style stems. The US Gulf remained firm on selected Atlantic routes, especially where vessel willingness was limited. However, fronthaul to Asia eased slightly, showing that strength is not uniform. West Coast South America turned sharply stronger, adding another layer of support to the wider South American market. The Black Sea improved modestly but remained secondary, while the Continent softened again due to limited fresh cargo and an overly comfortable tonnage list. Overall, Supramax remains constructive, but buyers should focus on route scarcity rather than assuming the whole basin is firm. Panamax strengthened again and remains the strongest freight segment. South American grain remained the strongest Atlantic outlet, supported by cargo density and tighter prompt supply. The US Gulf improved with the wider Atlantic market, helped by grain and fronthaul demand, though South America still held the better premium. The Pacific remained firm, supported by mineral demand and Australian business. Europe stayed constructive, with both mineral and grain-linked demand helping support fronthaul, while prompt ships became harder to source. Overall, Panamax is the most time-sensitive segment for buyers. The physical market is firm, and paper is reinforcing the rally. Atlantic Basin Panamax remains strong, led by South American grain and tighter prompt supply. Supramax is firm in selected route pockets, while Handysize has weakened as ballast pressure builds. Pacific Basin The Pacific is firmer across several sizes, especially Handysize, Supramax and Panamax. Mineral demand and tighter lists continue to support sentiment. Mediterranean / Black Sea This remains one of the weaker areas. Vessel supply is still long, and local demand is not strong enough to drive a broad recovery. Fuel and energy Bunker prices remain volatile and headline-sensitive. Freight replacement costs are still being shaped by war-risk and routing uncertainty, not just flat bunker prices. Security and routing Hormuz remains functionally constrained. Red Sea, India-linked and Gulf-adjacent employment still carry premiums, and route pricing has not normalised. Panama Canal Canal friction continues to support Atlantic-to-Pacific freight by making vessel substitution harder and extending voyage chains. China demand risk Panamax and larger sizes remain supported by Pacific minerals and possible agricultural flows into China, but the broader demand picture is still policy-dependent. Europe Holiday disruption reduced liquidity, but the core imbalance remains. The Continent and eastern Mediterranean still have too many prompt ships for a broad freight recovery. Handysize buyers should wait in Atlantic positions unless cargo timing is fixed, but move earlier on prompt Pacific cover. Supramax buyers should cover early where route scarcity is visible, especially in South America and selected US Gulf trades. The Continent and weaker Mediterranean positions still allow more patience. Panamax buyers should prioritise earlier coverage. This is the strongest physical segment, supported by both Atlantic grain and Pacific mineral demand. Across all segments, freight remains firm, but increasingly route-specific. The key risk for buyers is waiting too long in the basins where vessel scarcity is already visible.

Agri- Commodities: 04-08/05/26 : Ag markets started the week firmer as rising oil prices supported grains, with soymeal and Chicago wheat leading gains. Iran struck the UAE as the US escorted ships through the Strait of Hormuz, adding fresh geopolitical risk to commodity markets. Saudi Arabia bought 985k tons of wheat for June–August shipment, while Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB values for early June rose to $238.5/t. US winter wheat ratings improved slightly nationwide, though key HRW states continued to decline. Corn and soybean planting remained ahead of average pace, while strong US corn export inspections and an upward revision to Brazil’s corn crop added to the market focus. Grains turned lower on Tuesday as improving weather forecasts pressured wheat and weaker oil prices triggered profit-taking in corn and soybeans. Markets also reacted to signs of easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz after the US paused its naval escort operation. Crop concerns, however, remained in focus. Oklahoma’s wheat tour projected sharply lower yields and production compared with last year, while traders also looked ahead to the upcoming Wheat Quality Council tour across major US wheat states. Oil prices plunged and stock markets rallied on reports that the US and Iran may be nearing a deal to end the war, sending most grain and oilseed markets lower. Kansas wheat was the exception, recovering on ongoing US weather concerns and new frost risks. Elsewhere, Algeria bought an estimated 390k–420k tons of wheat in its latest tender, while Tunisia projected a larger domestic harvest after favorable rainfall. Fund activity remained aggressive, with non-commercial traders significantly increasing net longs in both MATIF wheat and rapeseed. Markets finished mostly lower but recovered well from intraday lows as oil prices rebounded later in the session. Kansas wheat remained under pressure despite continued concerns over US HRW crop conditions. The US Drought Monitor showed 70% of US winter wheat areas affected by drought, far above last year’s levels. Export sales disappointed for wheat and soybeans, while tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated again after renewed exchanges between the US and Iran. US wheat futures outperformed European markets on Friday, while corn and soybeans also ended firmer ahead of the USDA’s first 2026/27 balance sheet projections. Energy prices moved higher again as peace talks between the US and Iran appeared to stall. Analysts expect lower US wheat and corn production in the new season, while managed money continued aggressively adding to corn and soybean longs. Funds bought 80k corn contracts as markets whipsawed on Iran headlines.

Weekly Freight Recap: 08/05/2026 : The dry bulk market remained firm this week, but the move was uneven by size and basin. Capesize and Kamsarmax strengthened most clearly, Ultramax stayed firm but became more selective, and Handysize improved in East Coast South America while parts of the US Gulf and Europe lost momentum. The market is now split between firmer grain and mineral basins on one side and oversupplied Mediterranean and Continent positions on the other. Bunker prices eased with crude during the week, but freight did not soften in the same way. Owners remain cautious on forward cover because Middle East risk is still unresolved and the Persian Gulf remains difficult to price normally. Handysize remained split by region. East Coast South America strengthened again and remains the clearest area of support. Soybeans and sugar continued to drive demand, and prompt grain cover still needs to be treated carefully. The US Gulf was broadly flat to mixed. Better enquiry appeared earlier in the week, but more tonnage entered the market and capped further upside. The Black Sea stayed soft, with heavy supply and limited grain demand keeping rates under pressure. The Continent softened further as too many prompt ships competed against limited cargo. Most enquiry sat further forward, leaving nearby fixing weak. Asia remained firm and continued to offer one of the cleaner prompt markets. Overall, Handysize strength is concentrated in East Coast South America and Asia, while the US Gulf, Continent and Mediterranean look less urgent. Ultramax stayed firm overall, but the market became more route-specific. East Coast South America remained well supported, especially on fronthaul and north Brazil business. The basin stayed balanced, with steady fixing flow rather than any major squeeze. The US Gulf stayed firm but mixed by route. Fronthaul improved and remained the clearest support, while some Europe-facing routes eased slightly. The Black Sea and Mediterranean remained soft, with structural oversupply still limiting recovery despite some stabilisation. The Continent lost some of last week’s tightness as more tonnage became available and prompt cargo thinned. Overall, Ultramax still has a firm base, but buyers can be more patient on Europe-facing cover while remaining cautious on fronthaul and Pacific-linked stems. Kamsarmax strengthened again and remains the cleanest firm segment. South American grain stayed the best Atlantic outlet, supported by steady cargo flow and tighter prompt supply. The US Gulf improved with the wider Atlantic tone, though it still did not lead the market. The basin is supported, but South America remains stronger. The Pacific stayed firm, helped by strong mineral and Australian business. This remains one of the clearest areas of demand support. Europe remained mixed but firm, with mineral demand doing more to support the basin than grain.Overall, Kamsarmax combines firm physical demand with a tightening vessel balance, making it the strongest segment for the next few weeks. Atlantic Basin South America remains the main source of strength, especially for grain-linked employment. The US Gulf is firmer in Kamsarmax and Ultramax but less convincing in Handysize. The Continent and Mediterranean remain pressured by oversupply. Pacific Basin The Pacific remains strong, particularly for Kamsarmax and prompt Handysize positions. Mineral demand and Australian activity continue to support the market. Mediterranean / Black Sea This remains the weakest area. Supply is heavy, grain demand is limited, and owners continue to face pressure unless they can ballast into stronger regions. Fuel and energy Bunker prices eased with crude, but not enough to reset freight. Owners remain cautious because Gulf risk is still unresolved. Security and routing The Persian Gulf remains difficult to price normally, and premiums for Red Sea and India-linked employment remain above normal. Panama Canal Canal economics remain supportive for freight, with Atlantic cargoes still competing for Asia-bound vessel capacity and longer voyage chains reducing effective supply. China demand risk Mineral demand continues to support Kamsarmax and larger sizes, but the broader demand picture remains mixed rather than fully bullish. Europe Activity improved after the holiday period, but Mediterranean and eastern Mediterranean vessel supply remains too large for a clean recovery. Handysize should be bought earlier in East Coast South America and on prompt Pacific business. Buyers can wait longer in the US Gulf, Continent and Mediterranean unless timing is fixed. Ultramax remains firm, especially on fronthaul and Pacific-linked stems. Europe-facing cover looks less urgent where cargo timing allows. Kamsarmax remains the strongest segment, with South America and the Pacific best supported. Waiting for a softer prompt market still looks risky. Across all segments, freight remains supported by tighter vessel positioning, unresolved Middle East risk and stronger mineral and grain basins, even though bunker prices have eased.